2022 NRA Report-part1
This content has summarized 10-year outlook report from the ‘Restaurant Industry 2030 Report’ by NRA(National Restaurant Association).
Key economic projections for 2030 include:
• Restaurant
industry sales are expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2030.
• The
industry workforce will likely exceed 17 million by 2030.
• Total
U.S. employment is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.5% during the
next decade.
• Total
U.S. employment is expected to increase 8.5% between 2018 and 2030.
“The restaurant industry is at a crossroads as it finds ways
to respond to consumer demand for meal and snack solutions away from home,”
said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group
for the National Restaurant Association. “Restaurant owners are swiftly
adapting across their businesses to meet the wants and needs of guests. The
radical transformation of the last decade will change the way the industry
operates going forward. It’s exciting to ponder how the industry will grow and
transform over the next 10 years, and consider how the Association can best
support the industry in capitalizing on these opportunities.”
The definition of “restaurant” will change as off-premises continues to drive industry growth.
Over the next decade, technology and data will become a
greater focus for restaurants as they adapt to growing consumer expectations in
the on-demand world. Guests will expect a seamless digital experience and want
their preferences known at each interaction with a restaurant. As off-premises
traffic and sales continue to accelerate, consumers will place a heightened
importance on experiential dining for on-premises occasions. Areas to watch
include:
• A
greater proportion of meals will no longer be cooked at home, lending to the
continued rise in delivery, virtual restaurants, subscription services, and
grab-and-go at retail locations.
• Cloud
kitchens will continue to grow, fueled by the expansion of centralized kitchens
and the growth of online, delivery-only brands.
• Consumers
may grow increasingly loyal to third-party delivery apps, impacting loyalty to
individual restaurants.
• Governments
are likely to impose further regulation on third-party delivery.
• Drive-thrus
could need to accommodate interactions with self-driving vehicles.
• The
restaurant of the future will be smaller in size. Smaller restaurants could
incorporate more automated kitchen equipment and the typical kitchen layout may
change.
Nutrition and sustainability will drive menus.
Sustainable sourcing and transparency will continue to grow
in focus for consumers over the next decade. In order to remain competitive,
restaurants will need to adapt to evolving dietary restrictions and consumer
preferences. Food trends and menus will naturally evolve to reflect the
increasingly health-conscious, ecological mindset of the consumer. Areas to
watch include:
• Single-use
restaurant packaging, including in delivery, will evolve.
• Artificial
intelligence with knowledge of cooking techniques, food chemistry, recipes, and
alcohol could produce unexpected new culinary and beverage experiences.
• Advanced
genetic knowledge and the rising incidence of lifestyle diseases are likely to create
growing demand for meals that provide specific health benefits to diners.
The restaurant workforce is changing.
Population growth at an expected annual rate of 0.7% between
2018 and 2030, accompanied by changing demographics in the next decade, are
expected to lead to an average labor growth rate of 0.5% annually between 2018
and 2028. With slower labor-force growth, restaurants will continue to compete
against other industries for talent, making recruitment and retention vital to
success in the coming decade. Restaurant employers will adopt career-focused
mentalities as operators enhance retention by offering benefits and long-term
career paths to success. Key statistics and areas to watch include:
• The
number of adults in the labor force 65 and older is expected to reach a record
high of 16.1 million by 2028.
• The
number of teenagers in the labor force is expected to decline to 5.1 million by
2028, its lowest level in 65 years.
• Operators
will automate more routine back-of-house tasks to enhance productivity and
efficiency.
“Deconstructing possible trends and innovations of the next
decade will help both large and small-business owners in the restaurant
industry anticipate their greatest challenges,” said Riehle. “With these
actionable insights for the future, restaurants will remain an integral part of
the economy and a cornerstone of every community across this nation.”
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