2022 NRA Report-part3

 This content has summarized 10-year outlook report from the ‘Restaurant Industry 2030 Report’ by NRA(National Restaurant Association).

 

This is Part3, “CONSUMERS IN 2030”, of the 2022 NRA Report. If you want to start from the part1, click this [part1].

 

U.S. Population in 2030

AT A GLANCE

Population growth is a key driver of restaurant industry expansion. Any slowdown in U.S. population growth has a far-reaching impact on restaurants because it effectively constrains expansion in the economy, the workforce and the industry’s customer base.

Population growth is projected to remain modest in the next decade, and the U.S. population is expected to become older and more diverse.

 

WHERE WE ARE NOW

Population growth in the U.S. slowed in recent years. Total U.S. population increased at an average annual rate of 0.7% between 2010 and 2018, according to the U.S.Census Bureau. If the trend continues, the decade that began in 2010 will represent the slowest population growth since the 1940s.

 

WHERE WE’RE HEADED

The U.S. population is expected to continue growing at a modest pace. Total U.S. population will grow at an average annual rate of 0.7%

between 2018 and 2030, according to projections by the U.S. Census Bureau.

U.S. population growth is expected to remain modest Average annual growth in total U.S. resident population The U.S. population is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.7% between 2018 and 2030. [Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

Older adults are expected to make up a larger proportion of the U.S. population over the next decade. According to projections from the U.S. Census Bureau, “There will be 73.1 million adults age 65 and older in the U.S. In 2030, comprising 21% of the total population”. This age group represented just 13% of the population in 2010, at 40.3 million people.

The Census Bureau projects that the number of Hispanic-Americans will increase to 74.8 million by 2030, accounting for 21% of the U.S. population. Asian and black or African-American residents are also expected to increase their share in the U.S. population.

 

SALES FORECAST of Total Restaurant & Food Service

• 2019: $864B 
• 2020: $678B
• 2021: $799B
• 2022: $898B (Projected)

40% of operators think it will be a year or more before the restaurant industry returns to “normal.” Restaurant and food-service operators’ ability to innovate and adapt is creating a new future for the restaurant industry as it enters the 3rd year of the pandemic.

 

OPERATIONAL TRENDS

The pandemic accelerated a number of operational adaptations that have helped restaurants survive the past 2 years. They include new transaction technologies, outdoor dining, enhanced off-premises services, alcoholto-go and more.

8 in 10 operators say using technology in the restaurant provides a competitive edge; many plan to increase tech investment.

Roughly 50% of operators expect outdoor dining will become more common in their segment this year.

54% of adults say purchasing takeout or delivery food is essential to the way they live, including 72% of millennials. 1 in 4 limited-service, family dining and fast casual operators plan to devote more resources to expanding their off-premises business.

 

FOOD & MENU TRENDS

Restaurateurs scaled back menu offerings for a variety of reasons including supply chain issues, staff shortages, and the need to operate leaner.

96% of operators report supply chain delays or shortages in recent months.

8 in 10 full service and 2/3 of limited-service operators changed menu offerings because of supply chain delays and shortages.

9 in 10 report food costs as a % of sales are higher than before COVID-19.

Menu opportunities proving popular with consumers include:

• Offering fresh or packaged foods retail-style for sales on-site
• DIY restaurant meal kits
• Meal subscription programs

Sustainable, quality-retaining packaging tops menu trends in '22.

 

WORK FORCE TRENDS

Total Restaurant & Foodservice Jobs

• 2019: 15.4M
• 2020: 12.8M
• 2021: 14.5M
• 2022: 14.9M*
• 2030: 16.5M (Projected)

 

Roughly 50% of operators in the full-service, quick service and fast-casual segments expect recruiting & retaining employees will be their top challenge in '22.

The industry added back 1.7M jobs in '21, but 7 in 10 operators say they don’t have enough staff to support their current service demand.

 

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